Israel’s 2026 Election: Netanyahu, Eisenkot and the Battle for Israel’s Next Government

 

Israel’s 2026 Election: Netanyahu, Eisenkot and the Battle for Israel’s Next Government

Israel is heading toward one of the most important elections in its recent history, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fighting to remain in power while a group of opposition parties is trying to end his long political career.

The Israeli national election is scheduled for October 27, 2026, and the result could determine not only who leads Israel but also how the country deals with the wars and security challenges in the Middle East, its relationship with the United States and Europe, and its increasingly difficult relationship with the Palestinians.

The election is especially important because it is the first Israeli national election since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack that shocked Israel and triggered a devastating regional conflict involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Netanyahu remains one of Israel's most powerful and experienced politicians, but his position is under serious pressure.

His strongest challenger at the moment is former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party has moved ahead of Netanyahu's Likud in several recent polls.

However, this does not mean Eisenkot has already won.

Israel's political system makes the election much more complicated because voters do not directly elect the prime minister. They vote for political parties, which then receive seats in the 120-member Knesset, Israel's parliament.

A government needs the support of at least 61 members to control the Knesset.

That means a party can finish first but still fail to form a government.

This is why the October election could produce another difficult coalition battle.

Benjamin Netanyahu: The veteran fighting to remain prime minister

Benjamin Netanyahu, popularly known as "Bibi", is the leader of the right-wing Likud party and Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

He has spent decades at the centre of Israeli politics and has built a reputation as a strong security-focused leader.

Netanyahu's supporters argue that Israel needs an experienced leader because of the dangerous security environment surrounding the country.

Under his government, Israel has fought Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah-linked forces in Lebanon and Iran.

His supporters also credit him with defending Israel against threats from Iran and other armed groups.

But Netanyahu's critics argue that the October 7, 2023 attack exposed serious failures in Israel's security system.

The attack killed about 1,200 people in Israel and resulted in the taking of hostages, according to widely reported figures.

The war that followed caused a massive humanitarian crisis in Gaza and badly damaged Israel's international reputation.

Netanyahu has also faced political pressure over his corruption trial and disagreements about his government's judicial and security policies.

For many Israelis, the election is therefore not simply about the future.

It is also a referendum on Netanyahu's record.

Gadi Eisenkot: The main challenger

The politician currently creating the biggest problem for Netanyahu is Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces.

Eisenkot is leading the Yashar party and has presented himself as a security-focused but more centrist alternative to Netanyahu.

His military background is one of his biggest political strengths.

Unlike some politicians who built their careers mainly through parliament, Eisenkot spent much of his career in the Israeli military.

He also suffered a deeply personal loss during the Gaza war when his son, Gal Meir Eisenkot, was killed while serving as a soldier.

Eisenkot has criticised Netanyahu's handling of the country's wars and domestic political divisions.

His supporters believe Israel needs a change of leadership without abandoning the country's strong security policy.

This is important because Eisenkot is not a traditional left-wing candidate.

His political message is closer to the centre and security establishment than to the Israeli far left.

That has allowed him to attract voters who want Netanyahu out but do not want Israel to become weaker militarily.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid

Another important force in the election is the alliance between former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

The two politicians come from different political backgrounds.

Bennett is a right-wing politician, while Lapid is a centrist.

They previously worked together in an unusual coalition that removed Netanyahu from power in 2021.

In April 2026, the two joined forces again under a political alliance known as B'Yachad, meaning "Together".

Their alliance is one of the major opposition forces in the election.

Bennett is particularly important because he can appeal to voters who are right-wing but have become dissatisfied with Netanyahu.

Lapid, meanwhile, has a stronger appeal among secular and centrist voters.

Their combined political strength means they could become extremely important in coalition negotiations after the election.

Avigdor Lieberman

Another major opposition figure is Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beytenu.

Lieberman is also a former ally of Netanyahu.

However, their relationship eventually broke down and Lieberman became one of Netanyahu's strongest political opponents.

Interestingly, Lieberman is not considered a left-wing politician.

He has often taken a tough position on Israel's security and its enemies.

His opposition to Netanyahu is therefore another example of how the current election cannot simply be described as "right versus left".

A large part of the political battle is about Netanyahu himself, the direction of his government and which coalition can control the Knesset.

Yair Golan and the Democrats

The left-wing and centre-left side of Israeli politics is represented by politicians including Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats.

Golan has pushed for opposition unity and has criticised Netanyahu's government.

However, his party is smaller than the main contenders.

The Democrats could still become important if the election produces another parliament where neither major bloc has 61 seats.

In Israeli politics, smaller parties can become extremely powerful during coalition negotiations.

Itamar Ben-Gvir and the far right

On Netanyahu's side, one of the most important figures is Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of Otzma Yehudit.

Ben-Gvir is a far-right politician and has been one of the strongest supporters of Netanyahu's government.

His party has demanded a hard-line approach toward Israel's enemies and has strongly opposed concessions to the Palestinians.

Ben-Gvir's political strength matters because Netanyahu may need his support to form another government.

Another important right-wing politician is Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose Religious Zionism party is also part of the right-wing political camp.

The strength of these parties could determine how far Netanyahu can move toward the centre if he needs additional coalition partners.

So who is winning?

This is where the election becomes complicated.

The latest polls do not show a clear winner.

A KAN poll reported on October 12 projected Eisenkot's Yashar party to win 22 seats, compared with 20 seats for Netanyahu's Likud.

In a direct question about who would be better suited to serve as prime minister, Eisenkot led Netanyahu 43% to 38%.

But Netanyahu's wider political bloc was still projected to have around 53 seats, leaving it eight seats short of the 61 needed for a majority.

Another poll reported on October 9 showed Yashar with 21 seats and Likud with 20, while Bennett's B'Yachad had 13.

That poll also put the broader Netanyahu and opposition blocs at roughly 52 seats each, with Arab parties holding additional seats.

Therefore, saying "Eisenkot is winning" would be too simple.

The more accurate statement is:

Eisenkot is currently leading Netanyahu in several important polls, but neither side has a guaranteed path to the 61 seats required to form a government.

That is the real story.

Why 61 seats are so important

Israel has 120 Knesset seats.

A government normally needs at least 61 members supporting it.

No single party is expected to come close to that number.

Therefore, after the election, political parties will have to negotiate.

This could create an unusual situation where a party that finishes first does not necessarily form the government.

Netanyahu could lose the most seats but still potentially remain prime minister if he finds enough coalition partners.

Eisenkot could also finish first but struggle to create a coalition.

This is why the smaller parties could become kingmakers.

What happens if Netanyahu wins?

If Netanyahu's bloc manages to reach 61 seats, he could remain prime minister.

That would probably mean continuing a strong security-first approach toward Iran, Gaza and other regional threats.

It could also mean continued support for right-wing and religious parties.

Netanyahu's government has also faced criticism from several foreign governments over settlement policy and the war in Gaza.

A Netanyahu victory would therefore likely be viewed internationally as a decision by Israeli voters to continue with the current political direction.

What happens if Eisenkot wins?

If Eisenkot manages to build a coalition, Israel could see a significant change in political style.

However, people should not expect Israel to suddenly become a completely different country.

Eisenkot is a former military chief and has also rejected some proposals for an immediate two-state solution.

His opposition coalition includes politicians from the right, centre and left, meaning any government would have to balance very different political demands.

Opposition leaders have nevertheless promised to reduce some of the influence of Israel's far-right ministers, improve relations with international partners and take a different approach toward the Palestinians and the West Bank.

What does the world want?

This is one of the most interesting parts of the election.

Foreign governments generally do not openly campaign for a particular Israeli candidate.

The United States, European governments and Arab countries have their own interests and usually avoid publicly telling Israelis who they should elect.

But their preferred direction can often be seen through their statements and diplomatic activity.

The United States remains Israel's most important international ally.

President Donald Trump has strongly supported Israel during his presidency.

However, Trump has so far stopped short of publicly endorsing Netanyahu ahead of the October 27 election.

In a recent interview, Trump declined to endorse Netanyahu, although he praised the Israeli prime minister's political resilience and said the two leaders had similarities.

This is significant because Netanyahu has historically benefited politically from his close relationship with American presidents.

Trump's decision not to openly endorse him has therefore attracted attention.

At the same time, the United States continues to have a major strategic relationship with Israel.

Trump and Netanyahu's Iran problem

The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has another complicated dimension.

Recent reports say the two leaders have discussed the possibility of renewed major military action against Iran before their respective elections.

Such a military operation could have enormous political consequences for Netanyahu because security and military strength are central parts of his political image.

It could also create political problems for Trump because the American midterm elections are coming shortly after Israel's election.

According to recent reporting, Trump has shown hesitation about restarting a major military operation against Iran.

This demonstrates just how closely Israel's election is connected to wider Middle East politics.

What do European countries think?

Europe is divided.

Some European governments have become increasingly critical of Netanyahu's government because of the humanitarian situation in Gaza and Israeli settlement policies.

Countries including Britain, France, Spain and others have taken increasingly critical positions on aspects of Israeli policy.

Spain has been particularly vocal in supporting Palestinian statehood.

At the same time, European political parties on the right are generally more sympathetic toward Netanyahu and Israel.

This means there is no single European position on the Israeli election.

However, one thing is clear: many European governments want Israel to improve its relationship with Europe and reduce the diplomatic isolation that has grown during the Gaza war.

The international pressure on Israel has become a major political issue, although Israeli voters remain heavily focused on security.

What about Arab countries?

Arab governments are also watching the election closely.

Several Arab countries have established diplomatic relations with Israel or maintain security and economic contacts with the country.

They have a strong interest in regional stability.

Interestingly, reports in September said officials from several Arab countries had been speaking with people close to Gadi Eisenkot to understand his political positions and prepare for the possibility that he could become prime minister.

That does not necessarily mean those governments are officially supporting Eisenkot.

Instead, it shows that Arab governments are preparing for different possible outcomes.

They want to know what a new Israeli government would mean for relations with the Arab world, Gaza, the Palestinians and regional security.

What do Palestinians want?

The Palestinian issue remains one of the biggest questions surrounding the election.

Netanyahu and his right-wing allies have attempted to present an opposition victory as a possible route toward the creation of a Palestinian state.

But that picture is more complicated.

Many of the leading opposition parties do not support an immediate two-state solution either.

Eisenkot has rejected the idea that creating a Palestinian state should currently be Israel's immediate policy.

Other opposition leaders have different positions, with some supporting stronger cooperation with the Palestinian Authority and measures aimed at reducing tensions.

Therefore, Palestinians should not assume that a Netanyahu defeat automatically means an independent Palestinian state will be created.

The Israeli political system is much more complicated than that.

Arab Israeli voters could become very important

Arab citizens of Israel could play a major role in determining the next government.

Because the main Jewish political blocs are struggling to reach 61 seats, Arab parties could become important in determining which side can form a government.

One Arab political leader, Yusuf Jabareen of the Joint List, recently said that strong turnout among Arab citizens could prevent Netanyahu from returning to power.

He argued that Arab voters could become decisive in the election.

However, Eisenkot and some other opposition leaders have been reluctant to depend on Arab parties for a governing coalition.

This creates one of the biggest mathematical problems for the opposition.

Even if Netanyahu's bloc fails to reach 61 seats, Eisenkot still needs enough partners to build a government.

The international reputation of Israel

Another major issue is Israel's international reputation.

Israel has traditionally enjoyed strong support from the United States and important relationships with Europe.

But the Gaza war has produced growing criticism.

Some governments and international organisations have accused Israel of serious violations, while Israel strongly rejects many of those accusations and says it is defending itself against armed groups.

The dispute has created a serious diplomatic challenge.

A number of analysts believe an opposition government could try to repair some of Israel's damaged relationships.

Opposition figures have spoken about rebuilding ties with international partners, limiting some actions by far-right ministers and restoring some cooperation with the Palestinian Authority.

But experts also warn that a new government would still face the same security threats and political pressures.

Netanyahu still has a path to victory

Despite polls showing Eisenkot ahead in several measures, it would be a mistake to declare Netanyahu finished.

Netanyahu has survived many political crises throughout his career.

His supporters remain highly motivated.

Recent polling has also shown that Netanyahu's bloc can remain competitive even when Likud itself trails Yashar.

The latest KAN polling showed Yashar ahead of Likud but Netanyahu's broader bloc still holding significant strength.

Netanyahu also has an important advantage: experience in coalition politics.

He knows how to negotiate with religious and right-wing parties and has spent years building political relationships.

Eisenkot's biggest challenge

Eisenkot's biggest challenge may not be defeating Netanyahu personally.

It may be forming a government after defeating him.

His opposition camp contains politicians with very different political views.

Bennett is right-wing.

Lapid is centrist.

Golan is further to the left.

Lieberman has his own security-focused political agenda.

Arab parties have completely different priorities.

Putting all these groups into one stable government would be difficult.

This means the election could produce a situation where Netanyahu loses but Israeli politics remains unstable.

What the election really means

The October 27 election is therefore about much more than Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot.

It is a decision about Israel's future direction after nearly three years of war and political crisis.

Israeli voters are being asked to decide who they trust with national security, the economy, relations with the United States, relations with Europe, the Palestinian issue and the country's response to threats from Iran and other armed groups.

For Netanyahu's supporters, the answer is experience, strength and security.

For Eisenkot's supporters, the answer is a change of leadership without abandoning Israel's security.

For Bennett and Lapid supporters, the goal is to build a political alternative to Netanyahu.

For the far right, the election is an opportunity to maintain and strengthen the current government's policies.

For Arab Israeli voters, the election is also about political representation, discrimination, security and influence.

Final verdict: Who is likely to win?

At the moment, Gadi Eisenkot appears to have the advantage in several individual polls, with his Yashar party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot leading Netanyahu in some direct questions about who should become prime minister.

But the election is far from decided.

The most important number is not 22 seats for Eisenkot or 20 for Netanyahu.

It is 61.

Neither major bloc currently has a clear path to that number.

That means the real winner may not be known until coalition negotiations begin after the votes are counted.

Netanyahu could still survive.

Eisenkot could still replace him.

Bennett, Lapid, Lieberman, Golan, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and the Arab parties could all influence what happens next.

The world is therefore watching closely.

The United States wants Israel to remain a strong ally but is also dealing with its own regional and domestic political calculations. European governments are increasingly concerned about Gaza, settlements and Israel's international standing. Arab governments are preparing for the possibility of a new Israeli leadership, while Palestinians are watching to see whether the election changes anything about their future.

For Netanyahu, October 27 could become another political comeback.

For Eisenkot, it could be the beginning of a new political era.

And for Israel, it could mark the beginning of another coalition government — or another period of political uncertainty.

One thing is certain: Israel's 2026 election will not only decide who controls the Knesset. It could influence the future of the entire Middle East.

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